RV − IV Spread Alert (SPY vs VIX)Realized vs Implied Volatility Spread (RV − IV) for the S&P 500 / SPY.
Plots the daily difference between 30-day realized volatility (SPY) and implied volatility (VIX) in basis points.
Key insight from the research: when the spread turns and stays above ≈ +50 bps, forward returns historically degrade and volatility of returns rises sharply — a useful early-warning regime flag.
Features:
- Clean daily plot of RV − IV in bps
- Horizontal lines at 0, −50 bps and +50 bps
- Red background when spread > +50 bps
- Built-in alert condition that fires once per bar close when spread closes above +50 bps
- Optional “all-clear” alert when it drops back below
Use on SPY or ES1! daily chart. Perfect for anyone wanting a simple notification when the market enters the “risk-on” volatility regime highlighted by Machina Quanta and the original Bali & Hovakimian (2007) paper.
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "Implied volatility"
VIX Implied Move Bands for ES/Emini futuresThis script uses the close of the VIX on a daily resolution to provide the 'implied move' for the E-mini SP500 futures. While it can be applied to any equity index, it's crucial to know that the VIX is calculated using SPX options, and may not reflect the implied volatility of other indices. The user can adjust the length of the moving average used to calculate the bands, the window of days used to calculate the implied move, and the multiplier that effects the width of the bands.
IV/HV Ratio's [Nic]IV is implied volatility
HV is historic realized volatility
Seneca teaches that we often suffer more in our minds than in reality, and the same is true with the stock market. This indicator can help identify when people are over paying for implied volatility relative to real volatility . This means that short sellers are over paying for puts and can be squeezed into covering their positions, resulting in a massive rally.
The indicator can track this spread over many time frames, when the short time frame is much higher than the lower time frames, consider it a signal-of-interest.
Implied minus Historical VolatilityJust a simple comparison of 30 day historical volatility versus 30 day implied volatility(VIX). In general, when VIX is way above realized or historical Vol, in general that is quite bullish. Backtest will be available soon.
Calm before the StormCalm before the Storm - Bollinger Bands Volatility Indicator
What It Does
This indicator identifies and highlights periods of extremely low market volatility by analyzing Bollinger Bands distance. It uses percentile-based analysis to find the "quietest" market periods and highlights them with a gradient background, operating on the premise that low volatility periods often precede significant price movements.
How It Works
Volatility Measurement: Calculates the distance between Bollinger Bands upper and lower boundaries
Percentile Analysis: Analyzes the lowest X% of volatility periods over a configurable lookback period (default: lowest 40% over 200 bars)
Visual Highlighting: Uses gradient opacity to show volatility levels - the lower the volatility, the more opaque the background highlighting
Adaptive Threshold: Automatically calculates what constitutes "low volatility" based on recent market conditions
Who Should Use It
Primary Users:
Breakout Traders: Looking for consolidation periods that may precede significant moves
Options Traders: Seeking low implied volatility periods before volatility expansion
Swing Traders: Identifying accumulation/distribution phases before trend continuation or reversal
Range Traders: Spotting tight trading ranges for mean reversion strategies
Trading Styles:
Volatility-based strategies
Breakout and momentum trading
Options strategies (volatility plays)
Market timing approaches
When to Use It
Market Conditions:
Consolidation Phases: When price is moving sideways with decreasing volatility
Pre-Announcement Periods: Before earnings, economic data, or major events
Market Transitions: During shifts between trending and ranging markets
Low Volume Periods: When institutional participation is reduced
Strategic Applications:
Entry Timing: Wait for volatility compression before positioning for breakouts
Risk Management: Reduce position sizes during highlighted periods (anticipating volatility expansion)
Options Strategy: Sell premium during low volatility, buy during expansion
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Combine with higher timeframe trends for confluence
Key Benefits
Objective Volatility Measurement: Removes subjectivity from identifying "quiet" markets
Adaptive Analysis: Automatically adjusts to current market conditions
Visual Clarity: Easy-to-interpret gradient highlighting
Customizable Sensitivity: Adjustable percentile thresholds for different trading styles
Best Used In Combination With:
Trend analysis tools
Support/resistance levels
Volume indicators
Momentum oscillators
This indicator is particularly valuable for traders who understand that periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility, allowing them to position ahead of potential significant price movements.
VIX Implied MovesKey Features:
Three Timeframe Bands:
Daily: Blue bands showing ±1σ expected move
Weekly: Green bands showing ±1σ expected move
30-Day: Red bands showing ±1σ expected move
Calculation Methodology:
Uses VIX's annualized volatility converted to specific timeframes using square root of time rule
Trading day convention (252 days/year)
Band width = Price × (VIX/100) ÷ √(number of periods)
Visual Features:
Colored semi-transparent backgrounds between bands
Progressive line thickness (thinner for shorter timeframes)
Real-time updates as VIX and ES prices change
Example Calculation (VIX=20, ES=5000):
Daily move = 5000 × (20/100)/√252 ≈ ±63 points
Weekly move = 5000 × (20/100)/√50 ≈ ±141 points
Monthly move = 5000 × (20/100)/√21 ≈ ±218 points
This indicator helps visualize expected price ranges based on current volatility conditions, with wider bands indicating higher market uncertainty. The probabilistic ranges represent 68% confidence levels (1 standard deviation) derived from options pricing.
Tomas' Financial Conditions Z Score"The indicator is a composite z-score comprised of the following four components (equally-weighted):
Credit spreads - ICE BofA High Yield Option Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) and ICE BofA Corporate Index Option Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Volatility indexes - VIX (S&P 500 implied volatility) and MOVE (US Treasury bond implied volatility)
I've got it set to a 160-day lookback period, which I think is roughly the best setting after some tinkering.
When the z-score is above zero, it throws a red signal - and when the z-score is below zero, it throws a green signal.
This indicator is a follow-on from the "traffic light financial conditions indicator" that I wrote a thread about a couple of months ago.
I moved on from that previous indicator because it is based on the Federal Reserve's NFCI, which is regularly revised, but I didn't take that into account at the time.
So not a great real-time indicator, if the signal can be subsequently revised in the opposite direction weeks later.
This new indicator is based on real-time market data, so there's no revisions, and it also updates daily, as opposed to weekly for the NFCI"
IV Rank/Percentile with Williams VIX FixDisplay IV Rank / IV Percentile
This indicator is based on William's VixFix, which replicates the VIX—a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The key advantage of the VixFix is that it can be applied to any security, not just the SPX.
IV Rank is calculated by identifying the highest and lowest implied volatility (IV) values over a selected number of past periods. It then determines where the current IV lies as a percentage between these two extremes. For example, if over the past five periods the highest IV was 30%, the lowest was 10%, and the current IV is 20%, the IV Rank would be 50%, since 20% is halfway between 10% and 30%.
IV Percentile, on the other hand, considers all past IV values—not just the highest and lowest—and calculates the percentage of these values that are below the current IV. For instance, if the past five IV values were 30%, 10%, 11%, 15%, and 17%, and the current IV is 20%, the IV Rank remains at 50%. However, the IV Percentile is 80% because 4 out of the 5 past values (80%) are below the current IV of 20%.
VIX9D to VIX RatioVIX9D to VIX Ratio
The ratio > 1 can signal near-term fear > long-term fear (potential short-term stress).
The ratio < 1 implies long-term implied volatility is higher — more typical in calm markets.
Black Scholes Model [racer8]This is the Black Scholes Model. This indicator tells you the prices of both a call option & a put option.
Input variables are spot price, strike price, risk free rate %, days to maturity, and implied volatility %.
This indicator was made generally for educational purposes.
By using this indicator, you will develop a better understanding of how options are priced.
This indicator was made to be as simple as possible so that the user can easily understand it.
I recreated the Black Scholes Model because there is very little scripts on TV that are based on the Black Scholes Model.
I am aware that are Black Scholes Model (BSM) scripts already on TV, but mine is not the same. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there is a BSM script out there yet that relies on the exact same inputs that mine does.
Why use this indicator?
If you don't already have your own IV indicator...
You can use this indicator to approximate the value of implied volatility %.
You already know every input variable except IV%, and you know the call & put option prices.
So put in the numbers for each input and put a random number between 0 to 100 into the IV% input to get the options prices.
Adjust that random number for IV% until the output (options prices) matches correctly with what you already know they are to be.
This is called the trial and error method.
On the other hand, if you already know all input variables including IV%. Then you can use this indicator to find the call & put options prices directly.
Hope this helps. Enjoy 🙂
VIX Crossing# VIX Crossing Strategy
## Overview
VIX Crossing is a quantitative trading strategy that combines volatility signals from the VIX index with trend confirmation from the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) to generate long entry signals. The strategy employs multiple exit conditions to manage risk and lock in profits systematically.
## Strategy Logic
### Entry Condition
The strategy initiates a long position when:
- **VIX Crossunder**: The VIX closing price crosses below its 5-bar simple moving average (SMA), signaling a decrease in implied volatility
- **AND NDX Confirmation**: The Nasdaq-100 closes above its 21-bar exponential moving average (EMA), confirming uptrend strength
This dual-signal approach reduces false entries by requiring both volatility normalization and positive market momentum.
### Exit Conditions
The strategy automatically closes positions when any of the following conditions are met:
1. **VIX Crossover (Volatility Exit)**: VIX closes above its SMA, indicating rising volatility
2. **Time-Based Exit**: Position is force-closed after 10 bars from entry, preventing prolonged drawdowns
3. **Take-Profit Exit**: Position closes when unrealized profit exceeds $3,000 per contract
4. **Stop-Loss Exit**: Position closes when unrealized loss exceeds $1,500 per contract
Exit conditions are evaluated each bar while the position is open, with explicit logging of the exit reason for trade analysis.
## Configuration Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Purpose |
|-----------|---------|---------|
| VIX SMA Length | 5 | Smoothing period for VIX volatility baseline |
| NDX EMA Length | 21 | Smoothing period for Nasdaq-100 trend confirmation |
| Force Close After X Bars | 10 | Maximum holding period in bars |
| TP Amount per Contract | $3,000 | Profit target per contract |
| SL Amount per Contract | $1,500 | Loss limit per contract |
## Risk Management Features
- **Position Sizing**: Capital allocation based on profit/loss per contract rather than fixed units, allowing for scalable risk
- **Dual Risk Controls**: Combined time-based and price-based exits prevent extended exposure
- **Profit Asymmetry**: 2:1 profit-to-loss ratio encourages risk/reward discipline
- **Contract-Based Accounting**: Profit targets and stop losses scale with position size
## Capital Requirements
- **Initial Capital**: $50,000
- **Commission**: $3 per contract (cash-based)
- **Instrument**: Designed for index-based derivatives or equities with liquid options markets
## Technical Indicators Used
- Simple Moving Average (SMA) for VIX smoothing
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for NDX trend detection
- Crossover/Crossunder detection for signal generation
## Underlying Assumptions
1. VIX crossunder events represent mean-reversion opportunities in Nasdaq-heavy portfolios
2. NDX EMA confirmation filters out uncorrelated volatility spikes
3. 10-bar holding period aligns with typical mean-reversion timeframes
4. Contract-based profit targets accommodate varying leverage levels
Daily maximum price range for Credit SpreadsVolatility & Momentum for Credit Spreads
It is a specialized mean-reversion tool designed primarily for options traders focusing on Credit Spreads (specifically 0DTE on SPX) and intraday reversals. By combining Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) with VIX-adjusted volatility bands, this indicator identifies statistical extremes where price is likely to revert.
Unlike standard Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels, TITAN adapts its width based on real-time implied volatility (VIX), ensuring that your "overextended" zones are accurate whether the market is calm or chaotic.
🎯 Core Concept
The indicator relies on the principle that price moves within a definable "Daily Range" relative to the VWAP. When price pushes to the outer limits of this range while simultaneously hitting RSI extremes; it signals a high-probability reversal setup ideal for selling premium.
🛠 How It Works
The engine is built on three pillars:
Volatility-Adaptive Bands: The bands are calculated using a 14-day Average Daily Range (ADR), which is then dynamically scaled by the current VIX relative to a baseline. If VIX spikes, the bands widen instantly to keep you safe from premature entries.
Momentum Triggers: Signals are generated only when the RSI (14) hits extreme Overbought (>70) or Oversold (<30) levels.
"Golden Hour" Filtering: To avoid market open noise or late-day chop, the indicator includes a customizable time filter (Default: 10:15 – 11:30 AM EST). Signals outside this window are suppressed to enforce trading discipline.
🚀 Key Features
Visual Strategy Simulation: The indicator now includes a built-in "Strike Simulator." Upon the first valid signal of the session, it automatically plots a horizontal "Strike Line" at the Outer Band ± a user-defined buffer (e.g., 10 points). This helps you visualize your theoretical strike price for the rest of the day.
Bull & Bear Zones: Color-coded fills (Green for Bullish Buy Zones, Red for Bearish Sell Zones) make it easy to see market context at a glance.
Live Dashboard: A Heads-Up Display (HUD) in the bottom right shows real-time RSI values, Golden Hour status, and current signal state.
Unified Alert System: A single master alert condition triggers if price hits an RSI extreme OR touches a volatility band during your active trading window.
📉 How to Trade It (Example Strategy)
Wait for the Window: Ensure the "Golden Hour" on the dashboard reads ACTIVE (Default 10:15 AM EST).
Identify the Zone: Short Setup (Call Credit Spread): Price pushes into the Red Zone (Outer High). Long Setup (Put Credit Spread): Price pushes into the Green Zone (Outer Low).
Confirm the Signal: Look for the Diamond Icon. This confirms RSI has hit the extreme threshold.
Check the "Strike Line": Use the simulated horizontal line to identify where your short strike would be (Outer Band + Buffer) to verify it is at a safe distance from current price.
⚙️ Settings
ADR Length: Lookback period for daily range calculation (Default: 10).
Baseline VIX:* The standard VIX level used for normalization (Default: 15.0).
Inner/Outer Multipliers: Controls the width of the bands.
Golden Hour: The specific time window for valid signals.
Strike Buffer: Points added to the outer band to simulate your option strike price.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This tool is for informational purposes only. Trading options, especially 0DTE credit spreads, involves significant risk. Always backtest strategies and manage risk accordingly.
Adaptive Bull Ratio Strategy█ Overview: Why This Strategy
Most option strategies fall into two traps:
They are too rigid: A "Call Ratio Spread" works great in slow markets but gets destroyed if the market rallies hard.
They are too simple: A simple "Buy Call" suffers from time decay (Theta) if the market chops sideways.
The Adaptive Bull Ratio Strategy solves both . It is a living strategy that "shifts gears" based on price action.
It is called "Adaptive" because it morphs its structure three times during a trade. It starts conservative to harvest Time Decay, but if the market explodes upwards, it "uncaps" itself to ride the trend aggressively.
█ The Entry Philosophy: Why Supertrend?
The default setting uses the Supertrend indicator as the trigger. This is intentional:
Volatility Awareness: Supertrend adapts to market noise using ATR. In high volatility, bands widen to prevent false entries.
Trend Confirmation: Since Phase 1 involves selling options, entering "too early" against a falling market is dangerous. Supertrend forces patience, waiting for a confirmed reversal (Close > Trend Line), ensuring the momentum is actually in your favor before you commit capital.
The "Drift" Benefit: This strategy excels in markets that "drift" upwards. Supertrend identifies these trends while filtering out short-term chop.
Flexibility with External Sources:
While Supertrend is the default, the strategy is designed to be flexible. You can enable the 'Enable External Source' option in the settings to plug in any custom indicator (e.g., Moving Averages, Parabolic SAR, or a proprietary trendline).
The Golden Rule for External Sources: The script interprets a Bullish Signal whenever your External Source line is below the Close price (Ext Source < Close).
Compatibility: As long as your custom indicator behaves like a support line in an uptrend (plotting below the candles), it will work seamlessly with this strategy's logic.
█ The "Long Only" Rationale: Avoiding the Volatility Trap
Why not trade this on the short side (Puts) during crashes?
The Volatility Trap (Vega Risk): In Bull markets, Implied Volatility (IV) usually drops, helping your sold options decay faster. In Bear markets, IV explodes (panic). Selling OTM Puts during a crash is dangerous as their value skyrockets, neutralizing gains.
Velocity Risk: Bear markets crash fast ("Elevator Down"). Prices can blow through adjustment levels faster than the strategy can safely roll down, causing slippage.
Structural Skew: OTM Puts are inherently more expensive. Buying expensive ITM Puts and selling expensive OTM Puts shifts the breakeven further away, making V-shape recoveries painful.
█ How It Works & Stands Out
This strategy actively transforms risk profiles based on market movement:
Phase 1: The "Safe" Start (Entry)
Setup: Initiates a Call Ratio Spread (Buy 2 ITM, Sell 4 OTM) + Protective Puts.
Logic: Profits from sideways drift or slow rallies via Time Decay (Theta). The sold options finance the trade.
Phase 2: The "Shift" (Adjustment Level 1)
Trigger: Market moves above Leg 2 (3 OTM Call).
Action: Rolls Up the position. Exits initial legs, enters new higher legs, and adds a Short Put to finance the roll.
Impact: Aggressive. You bet the trend is strong enough to support the added downside risk of the short put.
Phase 3: The "Uncap" (Adjustment Level 2)
Trigger: Market moves above Leg 3 (4 OTM Call).
Action: Exits all Sold Calls.
Impact: Uncaps profit potential. The trade becomes a Net Long position (Long Calls + Short Puts), allowing you to ride a massive rally without a ceiling.
Phase 4: The "Lock-In" (Optional Trail Adjustment)
Trigger: The market goes parabolic (price rises X levels above Leg 3, configurable in settings).
Action (If Enabled):
Call Adj: Exits the Phase 3 calls and buys fresh 1-OTM calls (Rolling Up to lock profits).
Put Adj: Exits all Put legs (Removing downside risk completely).
Impact: Maximum Safety. This phase is about "banking" the windfall from a massive rally and leaving a smaller, risk-free runner to capture any final extension.
█ How to Start: A Quick Setup Guide
Step 1: Map Expiry Dates
Manually input your trading expiry dates in Settings -> Expiry Management.
Format: YYYY-MM-DD (e.g., 2025-12-25). Strict adherence required for DhanHQ.
Step 2: Configure Symbol & Size
Exchange/Symbol: Enter NSE and NIFTY (or your ticker).
Lot Multiplier: Default is 1. Set to 2 to double all quantities (e.g., Buy 2 becomes Buy 4).
Step 3: Understand Visuals
Entry Window (Light Blue): Strategy is scanning for new trades.
Non-Entry Window (Dark Blue): Trading blocked (Day before Expiry & Expiry Day). Only management allowed.
Green Box: Valid Late Entry Zone.
Red Dashed Line: Invalidation Level (if price touches this, no late entry).
Fuchsia Line: Trigger level for Special Trail Adjustments (Phase 4).
IMPORTANT: Broker & Technology Heads-Up:
The alerts generated by this script ({"secret": "...", "alertType": "multi_leg_order"...}) are specifically formatted for the DhanHQ webhook structure.
Dhan Users: Plug-and-play.
Other Brokers: You need middleware (NextLevelBot, Quantiply) to parse the JSON.
█ Risk Disclaimer & Advice
Trading options involves substantial risk.
The Whipsaw Risk: In Phase 2, you are Long Calls and Short Puts. A sharp reversal causes losses on both sides.
Margin: Selling options requires significant margin. Keep a 15-20% cash buffer to handle adjustments instantly.
Testing: This strategy is optimized for NIFTY Weekly Options. Effectiveness on BankNifty or Stocks is untested and may require parameter tuning.
Advice:
Backtest: Use TradingView Replay.
Paper Trade: Run for at least one expiry cycle before live deployment.
Consult: Seek professional financial advice before trading.
Practical Tips for Smooth Execution
For a new trader deploying this system, these operational tips are vital:
Capital Buffer: Do not trade at your limit. Always keep 10-15% free cash in your broker account. Adjustments (specifically Phase 2, where you sell an extra Put) require additional margin instantly. If margin is short, the order fails, and your hedge breaks.
Liquidity Awareness : The script trades "Far Deep OTM" options (Leg 4) to reduce margin. On indices like Nifty/BankNifty, this is fine. On individual stocks, these deep strikes might be illiquid. Check the option chain volume before deploying on stocks.
Trust the Process (but Verify) : While the algo drives, you are the pilot.
Check your API connection every morning.
Ensure the "Entry Window" background color on the chart matches your real-world date.
Verify that your broker executed all legs of a multi-leg order (partial fills are rare but possible).
The "Human" Stop: If major news breaks (e.g., unexpected election results, war announcements), volatility can expand faster than any algo can react. It is acceptable—and smart—to pause the strategy during known "Black Swan" events or earnings releases.
█ Timeframe Selection: The 30-Minute Standard
Critical Requirement: This indicator must be applied to a 30-minute chart.
Why?
Noise Filtering: The Supertrend logic is tuned to capture multi-day trends. Lower timeframes (5m, 15m) are full of "noise"—random fluctuations that look like trend changes but aren't.
Execution Logic (The Hybrid Engine): The script has a built-in "Dual Timeframe" architecture.
Decision Layer (30m): Uses the chart timeframe to decide when to be Bullish or Bearish.
Execution Layer (5m): Internally fetches 5-minute data to manage the how (Adjustments, Late Entries, and precise invalidation).
The Risk of Lower Timeframes: If you run the main chart on 5-minutes, you destroy this hierarchy. You will get too many signals, pay too much brokerage, and the internal logic may behave erratically.
Recommendation: Always keep your TradingView chart interval at 30m. Do not switch to lower timeframes expecting "faster" signals; you will likely just get "false" signals.
█ Testing Scope, Feedback
⚠️ Important Note on Asset Classes:
This strategy logic and the associated strike step calculations have been rigorously tested ONLY on NIFTY Index Options with Weekly Expiry.
BankNifty / Sensex / FinNifty: The volatility characteristics (ATR) and strike intervals of these instruments differ significantly from NIFTY. The effectiveness of this strategy on these other scripts has not been verified and may require different parameter tuning (e.g., strike_step or ATR Length).
Stocks: Individual stock options often lack the liquidity required for the "Deep OTM" legs, leading to potential execution failures.
We encourage traders to backtest this logic on other indices and share their findings! If you find a robust parameter set for BankNifty or observe unique behaviors on other scripts, please let us know in the comments below so we can improve the algorithm for everyone. Your feedback is appriciated.
Mongoose Global Conflict Risk Index v1Overview
The Mongoose Global Conflict Risk Index v1 is a multi-asset composite indicator designed to track the early pricing of geopolitical stress and potential conflict risk across global markets. By combining signals from safe havens, volatility indices, energy markets, and emerging market equities, the index provides a normalized 0–10 score with clear bias classifications (Neutral, Caution, Elevated, High, Shock).
This tool is not predictive of headlines but captures when markets are clustering around conflict-sensitive assets before events are widely recognized.
Methodology
The indicator calculates rolling rate-of-change z-scores for eight conflict-sensitive assets:
Gold (XAUUSD) – classic safe haven
US Dollar Index (DXY) – global reserve currency flows
VIX (Equity Volatility) – S&P 500 implied volatility
OVX (Crude Oil Volatility Index) – energy stress gauge
Crude Oil (CL1!) – WTI front contract
Natural Gas (NG1!) – energy security proxy, especially Europe
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) – global risk capital flight
FXI (China ETF) – Asia/China proxy risk
Rules:
Safe havens and vol indices trigger when z-score > threshold.
Energy triggers when z-score > threshold.
Risk assets trigger when z-score < –threshold.
Each trigger is assigned a weight, summed, normalized, and scaled 0–10.
Bias classification:
0–2: Neutral
2–4: Caution
4–6: Elevated
6–8: High
8–10: Conflict Risk-On
How to Use
Timeframes:
Daily (1D) for strategic signals and early warnings.
4H for event shocks (missiles, sanctions, sudden escalations).
Weekly (1W) for sustained trends and macro build-ups.
What to Look For:
A single trigger (for example, Gold ON) may be noise.
A cluster of 2–3 triggers across Gold, USD, VIX, and Energy often marks early stress pricing.
Elevated readings (>4) = caution; High (>6) = rotation into havens; Shock (>8) = market conviction of conflict risk.
Practical Application:
Monitor as a heatmap of global stress.
Combine with fundamental or headline tracking.
Use alert conditions at ≥4, ≥6, ≥8 for systematic monitoring.
Notes
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only.
It is not financial advice and should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods.
Volatility Strategy 01a quantitative volatility strategy (especially effective in trend direction on the 15min chart on the s&p-index)
the strategy is a rule-based setup, which dynamically adapts to the implied volatility structure (vx1!–vx2!)
context-dependent mean reversion strategy based on multiple timeframes in the vix index
a signal is provided under following conditions:
1. the vvix/vix spread has deviated significantly beyond one standard deviation
2. the vix is positioned above or below 3 moving averages on 3 minor timeframes
3. the trade direction is derived from the projected volatility regime, measured via vx1! and vx2! (cboe)
India VIXThe VIX chart represents the Volatility Index, commonly referred to as the "Fear Gauge" of the stock market. It measures the market's expectations of future volatility over the next 30 days, based on the implied volatility of NSE index options. The VIX is often used as an indicator of investor sentiment, reflecting the level of fear or uncertainty in the market.
Here’s a breakdown of what you might observe on a typical VIX chart:
VIX Value: The y-axis typically represents the VIX index value, with higher values indicating higher levels of expected market volatility (more fear or uncertainty), and lower values signaling calm or stable market conditions.
VIX Spikes: Large spikes in the VIX often correspond to market downturns or periods of heightened uncertainty, such as during financial crises or major geopolitical events. A high VIX is often associated with a drop in the stock market.
VIX Drops: A decline in the VIX indicates a reduction in expected market volatility, usually linked with periods of market calm or rising stock prices.
Trend Analysis: Technical traders might use moving averages or other indicators on the VIX chart to assess the potential for future market movements.
Inverse Relationship with the Stock Market: Typically, there is an inverse correlation between the VIX and the stock market. When stocks fall sharply, volatility increases, and the VIX tends to rise. Conversely, when the stock market rallies or remains stable, the VIX tends to fall.
A typical interpretation would be that when the VIX is low, the market is relatively stable, and when the VIX is high, the market is perceived to be uncertain or volatile.
CSP Key Level Finder This script is designed for option sellers, particularly those using strategies like cash-secured puts (CSPs), to help automate the process of identifying key levels in the market. The core functionality is to calculate a specific price level where a 5% return can be achieved based on the historical volatility of the underlying asset. This level is visually plotted on a chart to guide traders in making more informed decisions without manually calculating the thresholds themselves.
The script incorporates implied volatility (IV) data to determine the volatility rank of the asset and calculates historical volatility (HV) based on price movements. These volatility measures help assess market conditions. The resulting key level is drawn as a line on the chart, along with a label that includes relevant information about volatility, making it easier for traders to evaluate potential option selling strategies.
Additionally, the script includes user input options, allowing users to control when to display the key level on the chart, offering flexibility based on individual needs. Overall, the script provides a visual aid for option sellers to streamline the process of identifying attractive entry points.
MOVE/VXTLT CorrelationMany know of the VIX for equity trading. Yet, many are unaware that there is the same kind of volatility measure for trading bonds, called the MOVE Index.
"The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options which are weighted on the 2, 5, 10, and 30 year contracts."
With this script one can see the the correlation and divergences between bonds and its volatility measure to make educated decisions in trading or hedging.
The idea of this script comes from NicTheMajestic.
σ-Based SL/TP (Long & Short). Statistical Volatility (Quant Upgrade of ATR)
Instead of ATR’s simple moving average, use standard deviation of returns (σ), realized volatility, or implied volatility (options data).
SL = kσ, TP = 2kσ (customizable).
Why better than ATR: more precise reflection of actual distribution tails, not just candle ranges.
Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite ProxyRisk appetite indicators serve as barometers of market psychology, measuring investors' collective willingness to engage in risk-taking behavior. According to Mosley & Singer (2008), "cross-asset risk sentiment indicators provide valuable leading signals for market direction by capturing the underlying psychological state of market participants before it fully manifests in price action."
The GSRAI methodology aligns with modern portfolio theory, which emphasizes the importance of cross-asset correlations during different market regimes. As noted by Ang & Bekaert (2002), "asset correlations tend to increase during market stress, exhibiting asymmetric patterns that can be captured through multi-asset sentiment indicators."
Implementation Methodology
Component Selection
Our implementation follows the core framework outlined by Goldman Sachs research, focusing on four key components:
Credit Spreads (High Yield Credit Spread)
As noted by Duca et al. (2016), "credit spreads provide a market-based assessment of default risk and function as an effective barometer of economic uncertainty." Higher spreads generally indicate deteriorating risk appetite.
Volatility Measures (VIX)
Baker & Wurgler (2006) established that "implied volatility serves as a direct measure of market fear and uncertainty." The VIX, often called the "fear gauge," maintains an inverse relationship with risk appetite.
Equity/Bond Performance Ratio (SPY/IEF)
According to Connolly et al. (2005), "the relative performance of stocks versus bonds offers significant insight into market participants' risk preferences and flight-to-safety behavior."
Commodity Ratio (Oil/Gold)
Baur & McDermott (2010) demonstrated that "gold often functions as a safe haven during market turbulence, while oil typically performs better during risk-on environments, making their ratio an effective risk sentiment indicator."
Standardization Process
Each component undergoes z-score normalization to enable cross-asset comparisons, following the statistical approach advocated by Burdekin & Siklos (2012). The z-score transformation standardizes each variable by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation: Z = (X - μ) / σ
This approach allows for meaningful aggregation of different market signals regardless of their native scales or volatility characteristics.
Signal Integration
The four standardized components are equally weighted and combined to form a composite score. This democratic weighting approach is supported by Rapach et al. (2010), who found that "simple averaging often outperforms more complex weighting schemes in financial applications due to estimation error in the optimization process."
The final index is scaled to a 0-100 range, with:
Values above 70 indicating "Risk-On" market conditions
Values below 30 indicating "Risk-Off" market conditions
Values between 30-70 representing neutral risk sentiment
Limitations and Differences from Original Implementation
Proprietary Components
The original Goldman Sachs indicator incorporates additional proprietary elements not publicly disclosed. As Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2019) notes, "our comprehensive risk appetite framework incorporates proprietary positioning data and internal liquidity metrics that enhance predictive capability."
Technical Limitations
Pine Script v6 imposes certain constraints that prevent full replication:
Structural Limitations: Functions like plot, hline, and bgcolor must be defined in the global scope rather than conditionally, requiring workarounds for dynamic visualization.
Statistical Processing: Advanced statistical methods used in the original model, such as Kalman filtering or regime-switching models described by Ang & Timmermann (2012), cannot be fully implemented within Pine Script's constraints.
Data Availability: As noted by Kilian & Park (2009), "the quality and frequency of market data significantly impacts the effectiveness of sentiment indicators." Our implementation relies on publicly available data sources that may differ from Goldman Sachs' institutional data feeds.
Empirical Performance
While a formal backtest comparison with the original GSRAI is beyond the scope of this implementation, research by Froot & Ramadorai (2005) suggests that "publicly accessible proxies of proprietary sentiment indicators can capture a significant portion of their predictive power, particularly during major market turning points."
References
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2002). "International Asset Allocation with Regime Shifts." Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Ang, A., & Timmermann, A. (2012). "Regime Changes and Financial Markets." Annual Review of Financial Economics, 4(1), 313-337.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). "Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence." Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898.
Burdekin, R. C., & Siklos, P. L. (2012). "Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 20(3), 521-541.
Connolly, R., Stivers, C., & Sun, L. (2005). "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 161-194.
Duca, M. L., Nicoletti, G., & Martinez, A. V. (2016). "Global Corporate Bond Issuance: What Role for US Quantitative Easing?" Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 114-150.
Froot, K. A., & Ramadorai, T. (2005). "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows." Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1535-1566.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2019). "Risk Appetite Framework: A Practitioner's Guide."
Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009). "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market." International Economic Review, 50(4), 1267-1287.
Mosley, L., & Singer, D. A. (2008). "Taking Stock Seriously: Equity Market Performance, Government Policy, and Financial Globalization." International Studies Quarterly, 52(2), 405-425.
Oppenheimer, P. (2007). "A Framework for Financial Market Risk Appetite." Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper.
Rapach, D. E., Strauss, J. K., & Zhou, G. (2010). "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy." Review of Financial Studies, 23(2), 821-862.
Normal Distribution CurveThis Normal Distribution Curve is designed to overlay a simple normal distribution curve on top of any TradingView indicator. This curve represents a probability distribution for a given dataset and can be used to gain insights into the likelihood of various data levels occurring within a specified range, providing traders and investors with a clear visualization of the distribution of values within a specific dataset. With the only inputs being the variable source and plot colour, I think this is by far the simplest and most intuitive iteration of any statistical analysis based indicator I've seen here!
Traders can quickly assess how data clusters around the mean in a bell curve and easily see the percentile frequency of the data; or perhaps with both and upper and lower peaks identify likely periods of upcoming volatility or mean reversion. Facilitating the identification of outliers was my main purpose when creating this tool, I believed fixed values for upper/lower bounds within most indicators are too static and do not dynamically fit the vastly different movements of all assets and timeframes - and being able to easily understand the spread of information simplifies the process of identifying key regions to take action.
The curve's tails, representing the extreme percentiles, can help identify outliers and potential areas of price reversal or trend acceleration. For example using the RSI which typically has static levels of 70 and 30, which will be breached considerably more on a less liquid or more volatile asset and therefore reduce the actionable effectiveness of the indicator, likewise for an asset with little to no directional volatility failing to ever reach this overbought/oversold areas. It makes considerably more sense to look for the top/bottom 5% or 10% levels of outlying data which are automatically calculated with this indicator, and may be a noticeable distance from the 70 and 30 values, as regions to be observing for your investing.
This normal distribution curve employs percentile linear interpolation to calculate the distribution. This interpolation technique considers the nearest data points and calculates the price values between them. This process ensures a smooth curve that accurately represents the probability distribution, even for percentiles not directly present in the original dataset; and applicable to any asset regardless of timeframe. The lookback period is set to a value of 5000 which should ensure ample data is taken into calculation and consideration without surpassing any TradingView constraints and limitations, for datasets smaller than this the indicator will adjust the length to just include all data. The labels providing the percentile and average levels can also be removed in the style tab if preferred.
Additionally, as an unplanned benefit is its applicability to the underlying price data as well as any derived indicators. Turning it into something comparable to a volume profile indicator but based on the time an assets price was within a specific range as opposed to the volume. This can therefore be used as a tool for identifying potential support and resistance zones, as well as areas that mark market inefficiencies as price rapidly accelerated through. This may then give a cleaner outlook as it eliminates the potential drawbacks of volume based profiles that maybe don't collate all exchange data or are misrepresented due to large unforeseen increases/decreases underlying capital inflows/outflows.
Thanks to @ALifeToMake, @Bjorgum, vgladkov on stackoverflow (and possibly some chatGPT!) for all the assistance in bringing this indicator to life. I really hope every user can find some use from this and help bring a unique and data driven perspective to their decision making. And make sure to please share any original implementaions of this tool too! If you've managed to apply this to the average price change once you've entered your position to better manage your trade management, or maybe overlaying on an implied volatility indicator to identify potential options arbitrage opportunities; let me know! And of course if anyone has any issues, questions, queries or requests please feel free to reach out! Thanks and enjoy.
VIX MTF MomentumSweet little momentum gadget to track the VIX Index.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is known as the 'Fear Index' which can measure how worried traders are that the S&P 500 might suddenly drop within the next 30 days.
When the VIX starts moving higher, it is telling you that traders are getting nervous. When the VIX starts moving lower, it is telling you that traders are gaining confidence.
VIX calculation?
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of implied volatility (Of the S&P 500 securities options), based on the prices of a basket of S&P 500 Index options with 30 days to expiration.
How to use:
If VIX Momentum is above 0 (RED) traders are getting nervous.
If VIX Momentum is below 0 (GREEN) traders are gaining confidence.
Follow to get updates and new scripts: www.tradingview.com
Risk RangeThis indicator creates risk ranges using implied volatility (VIX) or historical volatility, skewness ( Cboe SKEW or estimate ) and kurtosis.
